Has the Southwest Florida Housing Market Frozen Over? Here’s What the Data Really Says

People online are saying the Southwest Florida real estate market has hit pause — that nothing is selling and everything is sitting.

But is the market actually frozen… or just shifting?

After working in this market for six years and tracking the data daily, I can tell you the numbers paint a very different picture from the panic headlines. And there’s one key metric that explains exactly what’s happening.

Let’s break it down.

Months of Supply: The Metric That Tells the Real Story

If you want to know whether a housing market is frozen, you don’t look at social media posts — you look at months of supply.

Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell all current homes on the market if no new listings came on. It’s one of the clearest indicators of market balance.

Here’s what Southwest Florida shows:

Inventory dropped 24% from March to November 2025.

That’s not what a frozen market looks like.

In a stalled market, inventory keeps piling up. Instead, homes are being absorbed, just at a slower, more normal pace.

By Area:

• Naples: ~8.3 months of supply (down from ~12 months earlier in 2025)
  
  
• Cape Coral – Fort Myers: peaked at 9.6 months (April 2025), up from 6.8 in 2024
  
  
  

Anything over 6 months typically shifts power toward buyers — but it does not mean homes aren’t selling.

It means urgency is gone. Balance is returning.

Price Corrections: The Market Reset Is Real

The “freeze” narrative often comes from seeing prices drop. But what we’re experiencing is a correction, not a collapse.

Median Price Adjustments:

That’s a 15–25% reset after prices surged 50–75% from 2020–2022.


What does this do?

✔ Brings affordability back
✔ Reopens the market to buyers priced out in 2022
✔ Removes the “buy now or be priced out forever” fear

Corrections restore sustainability.

Days on Market: Homes Are Selling — Just Slower

Here’s another big shift.

The median days on market in the Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and Naples region is now:

119 days
(National median: 77 days)

This is nothing like the 10–30 day frenzy of the pandemic.

Today’s market looks like this:

• Buyers do full inspections
  
  
• Repair negotiations are normal
  
  
• Closing cost credits are back
  
  
• Overpriced homes sit
  
  
• Well-priced homes still sell
  
  

That’s not frozen. That’s functional.

The Verdict: Cooling Market? Yes. Frozen? No.

Let’s put the pieces together:

A frozen market shows rising inventory, falling demand, and no absorption.


That’s not happening here.

What we’re seeing is a transition from chaos to normalcy.

What This Means for Buyers

This is the best buying environment Southwest Florida has seen since before 2020:

• More inventory
  
  
• Negotiation power
  
  
• Inspection leverage
  
  
• Time to make decisions
  
  

Opportunities exist — but only for buyers who understand market timing and pricing.

What This Means for Sellers

Sellers can still win — but strategy matters:

• Accurate pricing is critical
  
  
• Presentation and condition matter again
  
  
• Stale pricing leads to long days on market
  
  

The “list it and wait for 12 offers” era is over. The “price it right and sell smart” era is back.

Final Takeaway: A Healthier Market, Not a Frozen One

The Southwest Florida housing market hasn’t frozen — it has normalized.

This shift creates opportunity:

• Smart buyers can negotiate
  
  
• Realistic sellers can succeed
  
  
• Long-term market stability improves
  
  

Understanding the difference between a slowdown and a shutdown can mean the difference between seizing an opportunity and missing it.

Ready to Navigate This Market?

Whether you’re trying to buy at the right time or price your home correctly in today’s conditions, I help families and investors make these decisions every day.

Call: (239) 456-3711
Email: hello@swfloridarealestate.com

Let’s make a smart move while the market balance is working in your favor.